While the bookies constantly improve their soccer prediction methods and try and avoid paying out, we can still find holes within their predictions. The question is how. There is absolutely no one million-dollar answer. Even so, you’ll find two ways that can allow you to beat the bookies. One way is to analyze non-measurable match information. Yet another way is to improve on statistical prediction models utilized by bookmakers.
The very first method requires you to analyze data such as match type or priority, which is just not utilized in statistical models. Among-the most prominent factors that could influence the outcome of a soccer match are:
Match type which may be an international/national league, a cup, or a friendly game. Especially profitable for you are the cup finals, where the media selects favorites as well as the better informed punter can make the most of betting on the highly priced underdog teams.
Match priority. Each team has to define its priority for the forthcoming matches, since team resources are restricted. European national cups are good examples for the top teams of low priority games.
Match time is important, since soccer predictions tend to be inaccurate at the beginning and by the end of the season.
Players’ injuries, illnesses and transfers especially within the cases of key players. Bookmakers’ odds tend to be calculated before these details is accessible.
European Leagues – predictable and unpredictable. The Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish leagues will be considered predictable. The unpredictable are the English and German leagues, especially at the beginning and also the end of the season.
Other reasons are pitch conditions, team managers, match attendance, weather conditions and, bear in mind, pure chance.
To analyze all that information for every match could be a complicated and time-consuming task. The alternative is to use advanced statistical prediction methods, which constitute a marked improvement on bookies’ prediction models.
Why can their models be further improved? To begin with, when analyzing bookies’ predictions carefully, it’s easy to notice that their models are according to average statistics. Low odds usually correspond to teams with high table positions and vice versa. It’s clear that the precision of their models suffers when team skills change. Thus, by taking into account team skill dynamics, you can increase your profit by placing a bet on highly priced underdogs.
Second, the bookmakers’ models don’t distinguish between the attacking and defensive strengths of soccer teams and don’t remember that soccer teams choose different strategies when playing online casino soccer at home or away. When you learn how to distinguish between attacking and defensive strengths, you can simply forecast the total range of goals and beat the bookies at under/over bets.
Statistical models who were developed over the past number of years explain historical match results with regard to changing skills and strategy. Bookmakers don’t use such advanced models. Properly designed and optimized time-dependent models can predict around 70% of matches, outperforming the bookies’ predictions whose accuracy is a lot lower.